A private dialogue on the future nobody is pricing in.

LAKE TEGERNSEE · 16–18 SEPTEMBER 2026 · BY INVITATION

Request an invitation

01 — THE PREMISE

You arrive at an alpine lake.

Waiting in your room is a newspaper dated September 16, 2035.

You begin reading.

Some headlines are exactly as expected.

Others seem impossible. Yet somehow they happened.

The assumptions everyone shared in 2026 turned out to be wrong.

If only someone had taken those possibilities seriously.

Welcome to The Counterfactual.

02 — THE ROOM

Confirmed attendees include current and former members of organizations such as:

VIEW THE CURRENT ATTENDEE LIST

03 — AGENDA

DAY 1 · WEDNESDAY, 16 SEPTEMBER

Arrival

3:00 PM

Welcome, Hotel Check-In Begins

3:00 PM

Welcome, Hotel Check-In Begins

7:00 PM

Drinks and Jeffersonian Debate Dinner

7:00 PM

Drinks and Jeffersonian Debate Dinner

DAY 2 · THURSDAY, 17 SEPTEMBER

The Climb

9:15 AM

Basecamp / The Consensus

the most dangerous consensus beliefs today

9:15 AM

Basecamp / The Consensus

the most dangerous consensus beliefs today

10:30 AM

Hike to Camp Alpha

in curated, rotating, small discussion groups: pressure-test the assumptions

10:30 AM

Hike to Camp Alpha

in curated, rotating, small discussion groups: pressure-test the assumptions

11:45 AM

Camp Alpha / The Divergence

the trajectory of a counterfactual civilisation

11:45 AM

Camp Alpha / The Divergence

the trajectory of a counterfactual civilisation

12:30 PM

Hike to Camp Beta

in curated, rotating, small discussion groups: pressure-test the implications

12:30 PM

Hike to Camp Beta

in curated, rotating, small discussion groups: pressure-test the implications

2:00 PM

Lunch

Refuel and reconnect

2:00 PM

Lunch

Refuel and reconnect

3:00 PM

Camp Beta / The Wager

What do you/we need to start doing right now for this counterfactual world?

3:00 PM

Camp Beta / The Wager

What do you/we need to start doing right now for this counterfactual world?

3:45 PM

Hike to Summit

in curated, rotating, small discussion groups: pressure-test the opportunities

3:45 PM

Hike to Summit

in curated, rotating, small discussion groups: pressure-test the opportunities

4:30 PM

Summit / The Great Re-Pricing

What market dislocations can this group seize on?

4:30 PM

Summit / The Great Re-Pricing

What market dislocations can this group seize on?

6:15 PM

Downtime

6:15 PM

Downtime

7:00 PM

Drinks and Jeffersonian Debate Dinner

7:00 PM

Drinks and Jeffersonian Debate Dinner

Plan for a full day in the mountains. The trails are manageable, but expect a real hike and a real workout. Comfortable trail or hiking boots, a rain jacket and warm layers.

VIEW THE ROUTE

DAY 3 · FRIDAY, 18 SEPTEMBER

Wargaming & Simulations

9:15 AM

Wargaming & simulations

The counterfactual future in small groups. Policies, tactics, capital allocation. Output will be a part of competing simulations of the future

9:15 AM

Wargaming & simulations

The counterfactual future in small groups. Policies, tactics, capital allocation. Output will be a part of competing simulations of the future

11:30 AM

Debrief and knowledge sharing

from wargames and simulations

11:30 AM

Debrief and knowledge sharing

from wargames and simulations

12:30 PM

Farewell Lunch

12:30 PM

Farewell Lunch

2:00 PM

Optional PM Lake Activities

2:00 PM

Optional PM Lake Activities

04 — YOUR HOSTS

Your Hosts

Andrej Henkler

Haya Hanna

Carmen Alfonso Rico

Fadwa Ouardani

Team BlueYard

05 — SETTING

Lake Tegernsee, an hour from Munich

IN THE BAVARIAN ALPS

ACCOMMODATIONS

Spa & Resort Bachmair Weissach

06 — TRAVELLING TO TEGERNSEE

Tegernsee is easily accessible from Munich - just over an hour by train, or slightly quicker by taxi or car.

BY CAR OR TAXI

Just over an hour from central Munich, or around 90 minutes from the airport. A taxi runs roughly €150-200 from the city, more from the airport. Parking is available at the hotel.

BY TRAIN

Trains to Tegernsee run hourly from Munich Hauptbahnhof. Tickets from the BRB app, DB Navigator, or a machine at the station. No reservations needed.

FROM TEGERNSEE STATION

From the Tegernsee station, call a taxi, typically a 10-15 minute wait. Uber and Lyft do not operate. Buses also run regularly.

Taxi SAM +49 8022 3030

Happy Taxi +49 175 9001001

07 — ATTENDING

All expenses covered. You just have to show up.

Accommodation, meals, ground transport and the climb are taken care of.

By invitation only. Are you building the future nobody is pricing in?

Request an invitation

P.S. Oktoberfest starts the next day.